By Leonard Kamugisha,
KAMPALA,
Stanbic Bank Uganda’s Chief Executive, Mumba Kalifungwa has said Uganda’s future is not something to be observed from a distance, but something to be actively shaped calling on leaders across government, business, finance, and policy to translate macroeconomic momentum into inclusive, long-term prosperity.
Speaking under the theme ‘Uganda’s Inflection Point: Competing in a Rewired Global Economy’, he highlighted the near completion of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), now estimated at 97 percent complete, describing it as the most consequential infrastructure investment in Uganda’s history.
“With an estimated 1.6 billion barrels of recoverable reserves and peak production of 230,000 barrels per day, first oil expected later this year will reshape Uganda’s fiscal position, industrial capability, and regional standing,” he told the invited gathering at the 5th Stanbic Economic Forum on Thursday.
He said the true value of the oil and gas sector lies beyond headline numbers, emphasizing job creation across the value chain, local supplier development, skills transfer, and long-term national capability.
He also pointed to the global headwinds and opportunities shaping Uganda’s competitiveness, including evolving trade regimes, supply chain realignments, the uncertain future of AGOA, and the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence, noting that Africa’s artificial intelligence (AI) market is projected to nearly quadruple by 2030.
Mumba said, “AI is no longer a distant frontier. The question is not whether Uganda participates, but how inclusively and competitively it does so.”
He said Stanbic Bank has partnered with the country for over 35 years, financing infrastructure, supporting enterprises, and enabling families to build economic security spelt out in its purpose, ‘Uganda is our home, we drive her growth’.
He outlined the bank’s purpose-driven focus on financial inclusion, enterprise development, infrastructure, climate resilience, and corporate philanthropy, with particular emphasis on women, youth, and farmers.
Jibran Qureishi, Standard Bank Group’s Head of Africa Regions Economic Research, the keynote speaker at the Forum also provided a detailed macroeconomic outlook pointing to Uganda’s steady ascent toward the seven percent GDP growth threshold.
Following growth of approximately 6.3 percent in financial year (FY) 2024/25, Qureishi projected expansion of 6.5 percent to 6.7 percent in FY 2025/26, with growth likely approaching seven percent or higher in FY 2026/27, driven largely by oil-sector investment and sustained public infrastructure spending.
However, he said while first oil, expected from late 2026, represents a historic inflection point, the most significant macroeconomic impacts will be seen in fiscal revenues, foreign exchange earnings, and the balance of payments which are likely to become more pronounced closer to 2030, in line with global oil production ramp-up trends.
He also commended the government’s fiscal discipline over the past decade, particularly its restraint in avoiding the premature monetization of future oil revenues, a decision that has helped preserve macroeconomic stability and investor confidence.
However, Qureishi cautioned that strong macroeconomic performance does not always translate into improved household welfare. Capital-intensive growth, large informal sectors, inflation shocks since COVID-19, and IMF-supported fiscal adjustments have all contributed to a widening gap between economic growth and the lived experience.
“The challenge we face is increasingly about asset holders versus non-asset holders,” he said, warning that unresolved economic grievances can quickly evolve into social and political pressures.
On the external front, Qureishi highlighted a sharp recovery in Uganda’s foreign exchange position, with gross FX reserves rising from approximately USD 3 billion at end-2024 to nearly USD 6 billion by December 2025, strengthening import cover and reflecting an improved balance of payments position.
For the past five years, Stanbic Bank has convened stakeholders from the public and private sectors to assess Uganda’s economic prospects and policy priorities. This year’s Forum brings together policymakers, business leaders, and economic experts to examine how Uganda can strengthen competitiveness and unlock sustainable growth in an increasingly complex global environment.
