UNMA Highlights June to August Rainfall Outlook

By Ambrose Gahene,

NATIONAL

The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has highlighted the rainfall outlook trends between June and August 2024.

Milton Michael Waiswa, UNMA, Acting Executive Director, while addressing Journalists at the Uganda Media Centre on Tuesday, said the June, July and August (JJA) rain forecast period is generally a dry season over the southern sector of the country, especially parts of the southwestern, central, Lake Victoria basin, and parts of eastern region.

“The JJA 2024 rainfall forecast indicates that the northwestern and northeastern parts of the country are expected to receive above –normal (above average) rainfall. Parts of central and southwestern Uganda are likely to experience dry conditions during the forecast period”, said Waiswa.

He said the rest of the country is expected to receive near-normal (near average) to above- normal (more than average) rainfall.

He cited the JJA 2024 major climate factors that are likely to influence the rainfall outlook to include; the current neutral state of the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean and the intra-seasonal variation of Madden Jullian Oscillations (MJO), which  is likely to affect the special distribution of rainfall at different time scales of the season over most parts of the country.

He mentioned other factors to include; the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is currently in the neutral phase, the orientation of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the influence of the Congo Air mass circulation, topographical features and large inland water bodies.

Based on the above considerations, Mr. Waiswa said; the Southwestern Highlands of Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Rukiga, Rubanda, Bushenyi, Rubirizi, Mitooma, Buhweju, Sheema and Rwampara Districts will continue to experience dry conditions up-to around mid-August.

He said several parts of the Central region have been experiencing isolated showers coupled with dry spells and are expected to persist until early June.

“Thereafter, dry conditions are expected to prevail until early July when occasional rainfall is likely to set in up to the end of the season”, he said.

Waiswa also said the Eastern Districts of Kamuli, Iganga, Bugweri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro and Butaleja are experiencing a reduction of rainfall activity indicating cessation of the first season.

He said the Northern region Districts of Zombo, Nebbi, Pakwach, Madi-Okollo, Arua, Koboko, Terego, Maracha, Moyo, Yumbe, Obongi and Adjumani current rains are expected to continue until late June when a dry spell will set in until mid-July.

“Thereafter, occasional rains are expected to be established up to the end of the forecast period”, he concluded.