By David Ijjo,
NATIONAL
As Kenya prepares for general elections in 2022, Ugandan media scholar and Political analyst Dr. Samuel Kazibwe, explores the conflict drivers and trends within the political dynamics of Kenya.
There are growing fears that, unless the current political discourse is toned down and the nature of electoral processes re-imagined, Kenya will once again descend into violence in the run-up to the forth-coming August elections.
While summarizing the current political dynamics, and identity conflict drivers and trends, old and new as Kenya prepares to go to the polls in 2022 August general election, Dr. Samuel Kazibwe expressed looming forecasts of chaos and violence cautioning the East African community for advance preparations in economic hampers.
According to Kazibwe, the political temperatures and ethnic tensions rising in Kenya is a threat to trade in the East African Community since Kenya is the economic power house of East Africa.
“There are differences in distances and non-tariff barriers likely to increase the costs of transportation for East African traders especially in the ocean-distant countries such as Uganda, Rwanda, and DR. Congo among others”
Dr. Kazibwe further noted that smarting from the 2007 post-election violence that subjected businesses to heavy losses, Tanzania has become the favorite for most importers, who are avoiding the Northern corridor ahead of the August polls.
With memories of the 2007/08 post-election violence that disrupted transport on the corridor still fresh, Kazibwe predicted a further decline for the Mombasa port.
“While Kenyans are worried of the likely violence in the forth-coming elections, Some traders have already decided to change route for transporting goods, transit volumes through Dare-salaam have grown to 2%1 this year yet transit volumes in Mombasa have reduced by 6.2%, so the elections have had an effect on Kenya economically, but at the same time, Tanzanians are benefiting since some traders have decided to explorer that route”
Kazibwe unequivocally hailed Kenya for being a touch bearer of democracy in the African, unlike many African countries faced with a political complexity of dictatorship and over stay in Power, Kenya will have a democratic and constitutionally lionized power transition.
“Democracy and a peaceful handover of power is not part of the African DNA, but when the list of countries that have been able to do so grows closer to us, it becomes a very good example and it’s a very good development, it’s one thing that encourages and motivates peaceful handover of power in the remaining countries of the region were they have no seen the opportunity to see one leader handing over power peacefully to another president because as you must be aware, in the development of nations, that is one of the biggest tests”.
Kazibwe proceeded to hint signals of violence stating incidences of stone pelting on a private helicopter belonging to Raila Odinga in the rift valley region, William Ruto’s motorcade pelted in Busia, Martha Karua, Odinga’s running mate heckled at in Kirinyaga, her own ancestral village, signals he alludes as indicators of violence.
“The fact of the matter is that there are so many signals, however I think in 2007, the security apparatus was largely caught unaware, that was part of the problem, this time round, and the vigilance on part of the state is highly prepared”.
“The fact Kenyatta and Ruto are still Candidates of the ICC, has got a ripple effect on many politicians in Kenya that much as you can insight violence, but at the end of the day, the entire world is watching and this can in a way help to forestall violence in August 2022”
The handshake in March 2018 between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his political opponent and former Prime Minister, Raila Amolo Odinga, was intended to signal an end to the ill feeling which followed the 2017 presidential elections.
It was hailed as a landmark in the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), which sought to lay the foundations for national healing, including pledges to end historical and electoral injustices and unite Kenya’s citizens, however, for the first time in the history of Kenya, the president Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta and his deputy William Samoei Ruto are openly pulling in different directions. This has led to shifting loyalties and clear rifts within the ruling coalition, causing tensions in various parts of the country, notably at political rallies
Kenya’s next general elections are scheduled to take place on August 8 2022. The months leading up to, and after, elections have been the most violent periods in Kenya’s post-independence history, with thousands killed and more than 350,000 displaced in election cycles since the December 30, 2007 post-election violence
With only two months to the August 8 election, stiff competition is shaping up between two leading presidential candidates, the incumbent deputy president and UDA Political Party “Kenya Kwanza” flag bearer, William Ruto and the “Azimio la Umoja” political alliance headed by Raila Odinga.
The two leading candidates have chosen running mates from the vote rich kikuyu ethnic group, the support of which could be vital in determining the outcome. While former Prime Minister Odinga has settled for former Justice Minister Martha Karua, A political icon known for baptizing Kenya as a ‘hustler’ nation has picked business man Rigathi Gachagua.
