By Nakhokho Rashid Matselele,
OPINION
Ugandans expect to see Finance Minister Matia Kasaija, assuming President Museveni keeps him on, traveling to Kololo or Parliament in June with the usual leather briefcase. He will address the country alongside other leaders and use the usual big words “transformation,” “prosperity,” and “socio-economic growth.” Of course, these words have always appeared impressive whenever read to the nation from the paper. Because they always promise a thriving economy and a bright future.
However, as the Wananchi listen to these billions and trillions being mentioned, one big question is whether this money is going to work for us, or is it simply going to feed the debt monster that has refused to leave our house for decades?
According to the 2026/27 financial year Budget Framework, the government says it plans to collect about Shs 40 trillion. They say the economy is stronger and the tax man (URA) is becoming more “sharp” at catching everyone in the tax net. On one hand, you can say this is good, for it shows we are trying to stand on our own feet as a country.
But let us be honest, when the tax net expands, but the money in the pockets of a trader in Kikuubo or a farmer in Bududa is not growing, the “tax burden” becomes a heavy load to carry. We want to be independent, yes, but not at the cost of the common man struggling painfully to meet the basic needs of life.
Uganda’s proposed budget for the 2026/27 financial year is set at Shs84.3 trillion ($22.65 billion), marking a 16% increase from the previous year, with a focus on infrastructure, security, and industrialization. Key priorities include expanding the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), developing the Kampala-Jinja Expressway, and supporting 2027 AFCON preparations, with tax proposals aiming to raise Shs1.7 trillion to support this increase.
When we take a glimpse into the spending side, the government plans to use Shs 54 trillion. This figure has slightly reduced if compared to the previous year’s Shs 56.5 trillion. Furthermore, the framework promises to borrow less from abroad and from our local lenders. This also sounds like good news. However, the real problem is not in what we are spending today, but what we owe from yesterday.
2026/2027FY Uganda is set to spend a staggering Shs 12.7 trillion just on interest payments. What does that mean? It means this money will not build a single primary school, it will not buy a single bed for a health center, and it will not fix even one pothole on our roads. It is simply the cost we pay for the money we already borrowed, and most of which is going to domestic debt.
On top of that, another Shs 5 trillion is going to pay back the actual loans from abroad. So, before we even start talking about buying medicine or paying teachers better, a huge chunk of our national cake is already eaten by old debts. We are in a cycle where we are working hard just to settle the past.
The government has also promised to look for cheaper loans (concessional borrowing), and the optimism that the oil and gas will soon start flowing will save the day. However, keeping in mind that Uganda’s debt is projected to reach approximately Sh.131 trillion (roughly $34.8 billion), when the oil money finally comes, will it build the hospitals we need, or will it just be swallowed up by these same debt collectors?
If Uganda is to realize the dream of economic independence, then our budgets must be beyond just balancing columns of figures. When debt takes more money than health or education, then the common man is the one who loses out. A budget should be a plan for the children of tomorrow, not a punishment for the mistakes of yesterday.
Ugandans do not just want to hear on the radio, television, or read in the newspapers that the economy is growing. On the contrary, they want to see that growth on their plates, in their schools, and in their pockets. Otherwise, we shall keep seeing the big briefcase every year, while the impact on our lives keeps getting smaller.
The writer is a Ugandan Journalist, Communication and Media Specialist, Exploring Culture, Politics, Religion, and Media.
